Interview pour Al Jazeera sur Vladimir Poutine

Est-ce que l'Europe a raison de se méfier de Vladimir Poutine ? pic.twitter.com/q2e4lP5iPG — AJ+ français (@ajplusfrancais) 30 novembre Read more

Automne 2018 ~ Réflexions sur les Gilets Jaunes

Automne 2018 ~ Réflexions sur les Gilets Jaunes Habiter hors de France permet de prendre de la distance. Habiter hors de France, et en Russie, permet de mieux comprendre ce qui se passe et surtout ce qui devrait se passer en Read more

Discours de de Vladimir Poutine à l’Assemblée Fédérale - 01/03/2018

Transcription : [...] Chers collègues, L’opération en Syrie a prouvé les capacités accrues des forces armées russes. Au cours des dernières années, beaucoup a été fait pour optimiser l’armée et la marine. Les forces armées ont maintenant 3,7 fois plus d’armes Read more

2017 : une année charnière pour la démographie russe ?

Les lecteurs de Stratpol qui s’intéressent à la démographie russe peuvent consulter les analyses démographiques publiées en 2014 et 2016 qui synthétisent la complexe évolution démographique de la jeune fédération de Russie de 1999 à 2016.    La période 1990-1999 a vu un effondrement des Read more

Articles in English

What’s happening in the Crimea? (Interview for VGT)

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What’s happening in the Crimea? How will the crisis between Moscow and Kiev in the Black Sea evolve after the “naval battle” on the Kerch Strait?
Vision & Global Trends has organised a Whatsapp Round Table (WRT) with some experts to discuss the situation, turning to them the following questions:

What is your opinion about this crisis?

Why did it happen?

What will be the consequences of the crisis?

Paolo Bargiacchi, Professor of International Law, Kore University of Enna, Italy

The latest incident between Russia and Ukraine should be read against the background of a more general and long-lasting tense situation between Russia and Ukraine, on one hand, and Russia and the “West” (EU and US), on the other. The EU effort to absorb Ukraine within its own political and  economic sphere of influence at any cost (i.e., by supporting the pro-EU  faction protesting in Kiev against the suspension of the signing of EU-Ukraine agreements in November 2013) has triggered Russian reaction and, as a consequence, a state of confrontation between these players.

After Crimea became part of Russia, the Kerch Strait is no longer an international strait according to Russia. Even if the right of free navigation is in principle allowed in these cases, Russia is limiting the exercise of this right for security and military reasons. Ukraine as well as the EU do not recognize the status quo and they qualify as illegal the annexation of the Crimean peninsula by Russia in 2014.

Accordingly, they claim full, unhindered and free passage through the Kerch Strait to and from the Sea of Azov. In the near future, no particular consequences will follow. Ukrainian captured vessels with their crew and equipment will be probably released by Russia in the next week or few months. In the long term, however, the escalating tension between Russia and the “West” might lead to a more serious confrontation and further armed incidents between Russia and Ukraine.

Petr Bistron, MP, Expert in Foreign affairs, Germany

This is a dangerous situation, in spite of the fact that the initial incident is already over.  The Russian Federation charges that three Ukrainian warships entered Russian territory, and detained them.

Elections are taking place in the Ukraine in March 2019. It is clear that President Poroshenko will not be re-elected. The Ukrainian government responded to the crisis by declaring martial law for 30 days. It is possible President Poroshenko is using the confrontation to distract from local problems.

There is the threat of increased volatility along the ceasefire line in Donetsk and Luhansk. In the mid-term, there is the threat of continued militarization of Ukraine, and a continued lack of communication between Moscow and the West. This escalation is dangerous and should be contained as soon as possible.

Alexandre Latsa – Entrepreneur, Analyst

Probably the only reason why it happened “now” is that Kiev is facing a difficult internal situation.
Poroshenko’s ratings are low, Donbass will never go back to Kiev’s authority, and the Country is facing a terrible economic situation.

On the international scene, Russia’s diplomatic and economic isolation is a failure. Russia’s economy is adapting itself quite well to international sanctions while the incident at the Kerch Strait is the pure demonstration that sanctions “won’t” change anything in the way Russia chooses to defend its sovereignty.

France and Germany have already communicated that they don’t support more sanctions because of this incident while the position of the USA is still unclear. There seems to be no more unity on punishing Russia or not and if yes, how to do it.

Russia seems to be, at this stage, slowly but ussia seems to be, at this stage, slowly but surely winning, on thel long-term perspective.

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FRANCE AIMS TO SHAKE OFF US CONTROL

marianna_1he resolution adopted by the French National Assembly which calls on the French government to give up and refuse to prolong the anti-Russian sanctions is first and foremost a very important symbolic measure. Seeing as how the declaration is not binding for the French government, its provisions to not have to be implemented. However, the fact of the resolution’s adoption shows the orientation of the majority of the French elite and French society. It should be recalled that no other European parliament has taken such an initiative or adopted such a resolution despite the fact that 30-40% of the population in various European countries directly oppose the extension of anti-Russian sanctions and want to improve relations with Russia. Before this latest event in the French parliament, the opinion of this considerable amount of people was not taken into account by the political elite. France is the first sign that the situation is changing and that the will of the people will be taken into consideration, starting with France.

Domestic factors played their role in spurring the resolution. First of all, the Russian counter-sanctions that followed European sanctions drastically hurt the French economy. Frenchmen themselves negatively perceive the confrontation with Russia into which they have been dragged by the United States, and now want to get out of this situation. There are non-system forces, most notably the National Front, which have always been pro-Russian and anti-American in standing for the sovereignty of France. Therefore, the votes of the French people dissatisfied with sanctions were naturally given to the National Front.

The existing French establishment is anxious over this development, as we have seen how the Republican part of Nicolas Sarkozy tried to manipulate these sentiments despite him being an absolutely pro-American figure. The French liberals understand that if they continue to advocate for the extension of sanctions, then they will be isolated by their own people and their political careers will come to an end. This is precisely the reason why Sarkozy’s party has taken the course towards restoring relations with Russia — it is not that they are particularly fond of Russia, but that they realize that France and its population are for such steps. Hence why Thierry Mariani, an MP from the Republican Party of Nicolas Sarkozy, proposed the initiative to begin with.

It is also significant that deputies from both the right-wing National Front and the Left Party of Jean-Luc Mélenchon voted for the lifting of sanctions. Thus, left and right counter-system forces united against the American subordination of French interests.

Now we await further events to see whether the French government is to follow the interests of the largest opposition party and parliamentary opinion. If they do, this will demonstrate that even Hollande, a relatively controversial ultra-liberal figure, can no longer afford to trail behind US policy. However, if Hollande’s government refuses to consider the resolution, we can conclude that the French elite is so dependent on the United States that they are going so far as to sacrifice their future. Other European countries should naturally follow the French example. We can foresee this situation unfolding at the EU summit in the early summer. Several countries will oppose the extension of anti-Russian sanctions as was earlier proposed, for example, by the Hungarian leadership. Traditional allies and supporters of rapprochement with Russia will bring new votes and people to the table, some of whom might be surprising.

We hope that this sanction war between Europe and Russia which is disadvantageous for both sides and benefits only the United States (who gains an advantage by disassociating the two geopolitical poles) will come to an end. The fact that both counter-system forces and parts of the system itself have come out for lifting sanctions shows that the geopolitical rules are unchangeable and that Europe cannot act without Russia. Europe can not hope to be an independent pole of power if it does not improve relations and strengthen its alliance with the key countries of Eurasia, first and foremost Russia.

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LIFTING SANCTION — RUSSIAN AND FRENCH VICTORY

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I personally think that the adopted today French resolution is a great step for my country. As Frenchman, I’m very glad that our country voted against the sanctions, Mr. Mariani has a very effective policy in this sphere for long time, and we saw that today this policy was successful.

This is a very good political decision for France: it has shown that it can become independent and to choose the profitable way. It can stand against the American policy against Russia. Therefore, it is a victory for both Russia and France. It is not widely spread, but these sanctions were useful for the Russian economy, it can be said that the Russian economy has become stronger due to the sanctions, perhaps it would be better for Russia if the sanctions would last another 10 years.

But I doubt that it will be adopted completely. I do not think that the French government will follow the resolution. We can see that the majority of MPs who voted for the sanctions lifting, support Thierry Mariani, and everyone, who was against it, who wanted the sanctions to be prolonged, are the adherents of Francois Hollande’s political party, the Socialists and ecologists. The ecologists in France strongly oppose Putin’s Russia, so, unfortunately, I think that Francois Hollande will not take this decision quickly.

There is the possibility that the other countries will follow French example. I think that many EU countries are afraid to make such a decision the first. But if another country will give them an example, many of them will follow it. I think that Italy, Austria can take such decisions.

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Source

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Situation militaire en Syrie (Juin 2015)

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Source : @PetoLucem

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Russian demographics, winter or spring, depending on wether the analysis comes from the west or from russia

Saker

On September 2nd, 2014, Masha Gessen [1] an activist for the rights of sexual minorities, published in the reference magazine New York Review of Books (NYR) an article with a provocative title, The Dying Russians[2], illustrated by a lugubrious winter picture, taken in 1997 at the train station of a small town southwest of Moscow, Aprelevka. The image shows the back of people, hunched, crossing the tracks. In addition to this negative image, the reasoning developed in this article is so outrageously biased for the sole purpose of denigrating Putin’s policies that it mainly shows how liberal opponents of the present Russian governance are short of arguments and ideas. In an attempt to counter the Russian spring, some Western demographic experts are simply reduced to lie.

Between 1991 and 1999, the Russian birth rate collapsed, and at the same time mortality exploded, so that the population of the country dropped significantly, by almost 1 million people a year. Russia was then in the hands of an elite determined to let the country collapse, in what was presented as an economic transition that seemed out of control, at least within the borders of Russia. During this period, the collapse of the population was historically unprecedented, even worse than what the country had seen during wartime. This demographic fall appeared hopeless and Russia seemed doomed to disappear.

In 2000, the year after Putin took power, the birth rate started to rise again, having reached the very low rate of 8.3 per thousand in 1999. From then on, the birth rate has not ceased to increase. Read more

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International Female Congress «Women are the strategic resource of humanity».

banner englishFrom the 21st to 23rd of August the I International Female Congress “Women are the strategic resource of humanity” will take place in Kazan in the Hotel, Shopping and Entertainment Mall “Korston”. Read more

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SOCHI OLYMPICS TO RAISE RUSSIA’S CREDIBILITY IN INTERNATIONAL ARENA

The-three-mascots-of-the-2014-Sochi-Winter-Olympic-Games-672x372(…..)

In turn, Alexandre Latsa, the expert on geopolitics, French blogger who lives in Moscow, suggested that the popularity of Russian resort area with a mild southern climate will increase after the Olympic Games.

“Instability is growing in the Muslim world which may lead to the fact that many foreign and Russian tourists will choose safe destinations such as the north of the Mediterranean or the Black Sea in Russia,” he explained.

Moreover, in his opinion, the location of Sochi and new infrastructure are two important components the combination of which should be beneficial for the development of sports in Russia.

“The Olympic project that involves large-scale infrastructure development is a kind of a challenge to the world community. Many countries could not afford it, so the Games provoke a lot of envy,” the French analyst added.

In his opinion, this event can play an important role in raising the international prestige of Russia.

“Since the beginning of 2014 Moscow has tense relationship with the West after numerous disagreements on social issues. Russia is also an important actor in Syrian issue, and we understand that the terrorist threat is high. If Russia avoids a terrorist attack, the country will significantly strengthen its position in the international arena by the end of the Olympics,” Alexandre Latsa explained.

(…..)

Source: PenzaNews.com

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Publication in the Journal of constitutionnalism and human rights

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Chers lecteurs, j’ai eu la grande chance d’être publié dans le Journal of constitutionnalism and human rights, journal qui comprent des articles sur des sujets aussi variés que le rôle de la société civile dans les rapports de pouvoir, la limitation des droits de l’homme au regard de l’exigence de sécurité (question du terrorisme), les rapports entre la Russie et l’Occident sur la constitution d’un espace démocratique…

Vous pouvez télécharger le numéro ici

 

 

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Russia-USA : the end of the «Reset» ?

pb-130617-obama-putin-meeting.photoblog900The relations between Russia the United States just keep getting worse, and this downhill trend seems to have accelerated over the last few weeks. Particularly, and obviously, since the Syrian conflict seems to be turning into an indirect war between Russia and the USA.

So the illusion of a «new entente» between Russia and the US hasn’t lasted. The last G8 summit was marked by the Syrian conflict, which clearly opposes Russia and the other powers in the group – with the USA, the United Kingdom and France in the lead. The Russian president, Vladimir Putin, clearly stated during the conference that » … it is not the Syrian people who are fighting el-Assad, but commandos, including foreign units, who are well-trained and well-armed (…) by terrorist organisations

Since only one step separates Europe from Qatar, it is not surprising that the «Friends of Syria» have now decided to support the Syrian opposition even more actively, by opting for a solution which promises to be increasingly military in nature. Paradoxically, it was John Kerry who made the toughest declaration concerning Russia, when he accused them of being the main instigators of the continuing conflict in Syria. Without a doubt, his declaration signals the end of the honeymoon between Russia and the United States, and it looks like the chill may last. Read more

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A French perspective on the Russian — American relationship

Dear readers, I am really very glad to present You my first article being published in The Washington Times, via an insert produced by Russia House Associates in cooperation with Voice of Russia.  You can find the insert on the WT website on this link: http://media.washtimes.com/media/misc/2013/06/10/201300611-voiceofrussia.pdf

And also on this link http://www.washingtontimes.com/

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Безымянный

At the time of the collapse of the Soviet Union, in 1991, America triumphed in the sands of Iraq and announced the birth of a new world order dominated by the West. The end of the USSR marked the beginning of an era in which the Euro-American alliance assumed unchallenged control of the world’s economic, political, military and moral order.

On the European continent, the Western alliance seemed destined to gradually incorporate the entire former Soviet world for eternity.

From that moment, the Europeans, freed from Communism, seemed to fi nally have won the right to join the Euro-Atlantic community and develop their market economy. In a world that had become unipolar, they also appeared to have the right to choose between the West and the West, between NATO and NATO and between Coca-Cola and Pepsi.

This myth of the new unipolar world order did not last very long, however. Only 10 years after its birth, on 11 September 2001, America, the mightiest power the world has seen, was attacked on its own territory.

A year earlier, in Moscow, another fundamental geostrategic event took place, although very few analysts paid attention to it at the time: the election of President Vladimir Putin. That election marked the political birth of a new Russia.

A few hours after the attacks on the World Trade Center, the Russian president was the very fi rst head of state to speak to President Bush and offer him political and military support in the fi ght against terrorism. Russia, which at that time was facing an Islamist guerrilla insurgency in the Caucasus and terrorism on its own territory, clearly understood the fundamental importance of global, comprehensive and long-term cooperation in the fi ght against this scourge.

Unfortunately, Russia’s outstretched hand was not grasped by US strategists.

The wars against terrorism – initiated by America during the last decade in Afghanistan and Iraq but also to a limited extent in Pakistan, Somalia and indirectly in Libya – did not pay off. Worse, they have arguably contributed to the weakening of America’s fi nances, exacerbated its post-2008 economic downturn and laid bare the fl aws of the Western financial system. Read more

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